Monday, May 30, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

by Raymond Chatlani

On Monday, Asian stockmarkets were sharply lower amid signs of U.S. economic sluggishness and escalating worries about Europe's debt crisis after Italy and Greece were slapped with credit downgrades. In Europe, Standard & Poors cut its ratings outlook for Italy's debt from stable to negative Saturday, citing the country's poor growth prospects and concerns about the government's ability to reduce public borrowing. But with its rating still A+, Italy remains in far better shape than Greece. European mining and airline shares fell on renewed worries over the Eurozone debt crisis and as an eruption by Iceland's most active volcano was set to keep the island's main airport shut on Monday, while other European nations watched for any disruption to their air routes from a towering plume of smoke and ash. US markets joined the global sell-off on european debt worries.

On Tuesday, Asian stockmarkets closed mixed and flat amid eurozone worries. European markets rose on strong German business sentiment which was above expectations. US stocks ended the day with modest losses with weakness on tech stocks while oil stocks gained.

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets fell with Asian investors spooked by concerns over valuations and the outlook for commodities. European markets fell at the start of trading but closed the day higher on a turnaround in Wall Street. US indexes rose as commodities gained.

On Thursday, Asian stocks rose led by commodity and consumer related sectors, with steadier commodity markets and the euro's rally above $1.41 bringing some investors back into the markets in search of bargains. The risks surrounding the euro have not eased much, with Greece fighting to avoid a debt restructuring that could have a big ripple effect across other high risk-European countries struggling with gaping fiscal deficits. European stockmarkets fell as a result of disappointing economic news from the US and the ongoing troubles in Greece. US markets rose on upbeat corporate earnings although two disappointing economic reports revealed a weak U.S. jobs market and sluggish overall economic growth. US GDP grew at a sluggish 1.8 percent in the January-March quarter and more people applied for unemployment benefits last week. The number of people seeking benefits rose by 10,000 to 424,000, more than analysts were expecting.

On Friday, Asian stockmarkets rose for a second day after leaders of the Group of Eight said the global economy is gaining strength and South Korea’s current-account surplus widened. European markets rose across the board, with banks leading the advance after Citigroup turned bullish on the sector. Wall street rose as bullish comments about Greece caused the dollar to fall against the Euro, resulting in strength in commodity prices.

Last week, global equities and commodities recovered slightly, though Europe fell after Italy and Greece were slapped with credit downgrades. The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Friday after weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer spending and housing data stoked worries the recovery is losing momentum, while commodities posted a third straight week of gains. Friday's data showed high gasoline prices crimped U.S. consumer spending and bad weather pushed pending home sales to a seven-month low in April.

Today, trading is expected to be thin due to holidays in the U.S. and the UK. Although markets had a positive week, signs of a less than robust recovery in the US economy together with worries that Greece may not be able to avoid a default may hold this market within a range throughout the summer

Monday, May 23, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

by Raymond Chatlani

On Monday, Asian stockmarkets fell before an important European meeting today on resolving Greek's debt crisis upon news that the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn would not be present for the talks as he was arrested in New York for an alleged sexual attack on a hotel maid. Europe's stock market indices closed uniformly lower on the Greek sovereign debt crisis with european banks bearing the brunt of the sell-off. US markets had a gradual decline while the Nasdaq suffered a sharper slide that left it with a loss that was more than double that of the S&P 500 and about four times that of the Dow.

On Tuesday, Asian stockmarkets were steady and closed slightly higher. European markets fell on speculation of Greece's debt restructuring. US indices fell, pressured by a negative outlook from Hewlett-Packard Co, the world's largest technology company, and weak U.S. housing data. Groundbreaking for new housing dropped 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 523,000 units as a glut of homes on the market discouraged new projects, a Commerce Department report showed

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets all rose except for India, led by consumer stocks. European indexes seemed to celebrate the European Central Bank's decision to reject a Greek restructuring, as major benchmark indices across the continent finished higher. US markets rose on widespread gains in commodity prices which lifted energy and materials companies.

On Thursday, Asian stockmarkets rose on expectations that commodities have resumed an uptrend. European markets rose in a broad market rally but ended off their highs after mixed U.S. economic data, and some strategists said equities might be stuck in a range until the macro picture improves. US indices rose as the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, but other data on home sales and regional factory activity suggested the economy remained on a moderate growth path.

On Friday, Asian markets fell slightly on tepid US economic data showing that the US economy may not be as robust as previously thought. European stockmarkets were lifted by social networking site LinkedIn whose IPO price closed more than double but markets tanked at the close as Fitch ratings agency downgraded Greece's long-term credit rating further into junk status, in yet another blow to the debt-ridden country. US markets fell as market sentiment remained fragile due to the debate about possible solutions to Greece's debt problems, with the main market worry that any restructuring could have contagion effects beyond Greece's borders.

Last week global markets and commodities fell on signs of a slowing economy in the U.S. and concerns that Greece will default on its debt. On Friday, Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to B+ from BB+, four notches below investment grade. On Saturday, Standard & Poors cut its ratings outlook for Italy's debt from stable to negative, citing the country's poor growth prospects and concerns about the government's ability to reduce public borrowing.
Markets are going through "a global correction" because of slowing growth in China, the contraction of Japan's economy and Europe's debt problems. Also, the relatively weak U.S. economic data and the tightening of money markets mean people are getting nervous and reluctant to take long positions in the market.

This correction may continue for a number of weeks especially if Greek contaign spreads.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

by Raymond Chatlani

On Monday, Asian stockmarkets were lifted by better than expected growth in U.S. jobs and a bounce back in commodity prices. European shares fell as Eurozone debt worries weighed as Standard & Poors cut its rating on Greece by two notches to B from BB-, citing the Mediterranean country's rising default risk. US indexes rose as investors weighed uncertainty about Greece's hefty debt load against a spate of deals news.

On Tuesday, Asian stocks gained after China reported record exports. As a result China's politically-sensitive trade surplus ballooned to $11.4 billion in April and exports hit a record monthly high, as Washington pressured Beijing for a stronger currency. European stockmarkets rose as sentiment towards Greece's debt predicament improved and on a buoyant start to Wall Street. U.S. stocks rose after strong Chinese trade data eased concerns over a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and pointed to healthy global demand.

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets firmed on rising commodity prices which boosted energy and resource stocks, as investors largely shrugged off slightly stronger-than-expected inflation data from China. China's inflation eased in April to 5.3 percent and other data, including for industrial output and loans, suggested the world's second-biggest economy may be cooling and there was less need for further aggressive monetary tightening. European markets fell on a sharper rise in German inflation than expected and as the price of commodities dived. US stockmarkets fell as commodities slid.

On Thursday, Asian share markets tumbled after a second big sell-off in commodities in less than a week curbed investor appetite for riskier investments and boosted the U.S. dollar. European stockmarkets fell, joining a global sell-off after heavy losses in Asia and on Wall Street, as sliding commodity prices dented the resources sector. Sentiment was further rattled after China announced it would raise its bank reserve requirement ratio, stoking concerns about slower economic growth in the Asian powerhouse. U.S. stocks advanced in a volatile session, erasing early losses as a rebound in commodity prices kept the market churning higher.

On Friday, Asian stockmarkets rose as bargain hunting investors bought. European markets fell although data showed that Germany, Europe's largest economy, grew by a startling 1.5 percent in the first three months of the year, with France only paling a little in comparison, growing by 1.0 percent. US indices fell as investors continued to reduce investment in risky assets.

Last week, global markets and commodities continued to fall on Greek's resurfacing debt crisis, fears of high inflation in developing markets and concerns of slowing economic growth in the USA. As investors continued to flee into the US Dollar, commodities continued to sell off. Investors are divided as to the future direction of the markets.

Bullish investors see inflation as being strong and point out that first quarter earnings have been strong with almost three quarters of reporting companies beating Wall Street's estimates and that revenue strong has been sturdy. The bears point out that the Federal Reserve's $600 billion program to buy Treasury debt has helped investors divert funds to commodities and equities, creating a bubble in those assets, which is now starting to burst.

With the summer months ahead which is usually a slow time for the markets, we may now be entering a period where investors are paring their positions to take profits and re-enter the markets in the fall. Our view is that as long as interest rates remain below inflation, then we shall continue to see global equiities and commodities rise though there may be weakness over the summer months.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

by Raymond Chatlani

On Monday, Asian markets tracked Wall Street higher although stock trading in Asia was thin amid a slew of holidays this week in the region. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and mainland China's Shanghai Composite Index were closed for holidays as were stock markets in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore. Commodity shares retreated with silver falling 10 percent to $45 an ounce as the US Dollar strengthened on news that Osama Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan in a U.S.-led operation. European stocks edged up on merger activity and Bin Laden's death. US stocks rose following Bin Laden's death but ended lower at the end of the session as energy shares fell.

On Tuesday, Asian stockmarkets dipped as a bounce following the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces quickly faded and investors refocused their attention on the fragile global economy. European indexes fell after European producer prices in March grew a bit faster than expected. Factory gate prices in the euro zone were 6.7% higher in March than a year earlier, after registering a 6.6% annual increase in February. US markets fell after several companies reported weak earnings.

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets fell with soft commodity prices making investors nervous that a broader pullback in risk taking may be unfolding. European markets fell as investors dropped commodity-related shares and The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 17 countries using the euro fell 1.0 percent month-on-month in March for a 1.7 percent year-on-year drop. U.S. stocks added to losses after the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index came in weaker than expected.

On Thursday, Asian stockmarkets closed mixed as commodity shares fell offset by rising technology and consumer shares. European stock markets slid following a clutch of disappointing earnings updates from the region's banks and ahead of interest rate decisions in Britain. Britain's state-rescued Lloyds Banking Group reported on Thursday a net loss of £2.4 billion after setting aside a vast sum to compensate clients who were mis-sold payment insurance. In Paris, Societe Generale slumped 4.10 percent to 43.68 euros after the lender announced first-quarter net profits of 916 million euros ($1.36 billion), a 13.8 percent drop on the same period last year. US markets fell as new jobless claims fell to a 8 month high. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000, the highest since mid-August, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

On Friday, Asian stocks declined, dragging the region’s benchmark index to its steepest weekly drop in seven, following the biggest slump in commodities since 2009 and before a report today forecast to show slowing U.S. jobs growth. European and US stockmarkets rocketed and commodities recovered as the Labor Department reported that the economy added 244,000 jobs overall last month, well above the 185,000 jobs that analysts had predicted.


Last week stocks and commodities fell as investors took profits on weak corporate profits and as the US Dollar strenghtened on the news of Bin Laden's death. Investors weighed trades cautiously as analysts warned that inflation remained a major drag on the region despite various actions by central banks in China, India, South Korea and elsewhere to cool rising prices by raising interest rates and taking other steps to reduce the amount of money sloshing around their economies. In commodities, silver dominated the news with a fall of around 30 percent to $35 an ounce.

On Tuesday, China's central bank said its top priorities were stabilizing consumer prices and managing inflation expectations. The same day, India's central bank raised its key interest rate, its ninth hike in just over a year, and warned that persistent inflation is threatening growth in Asia's third-largest economy.


On Friday, markets and commodities recovered on the strong jobs report in the USA where investors felt that the selloff last week was overdone.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

by Raymond Chatlani

On Monday, Asian stockmarkets mostly rose following last week's good corporate results though China fell on inflation fears. European markets were closed. US markets faltered on discouraging corporate earnings forecasts. Gold and silver retreated after hitting new 2011 highs of $1508.70 and $47.15 an ounce respectively.

On Tuesday, Asian stocks and commodities pulled back from recent three-year highs in a bout of profit-taking before the Federal Reserve meeting this week where investors are seeking clues on when it plans to begin existing its ultra-easy monetary policy. European markets rose buoyed by strong results from Swiss banking giant UBS after profits for the first quarter came in ahead of expectations, helped by big inflows from wealthy customers. US stockmarkets rose on strong results from Ford and 3M as Ford reported its best first quarter earnings since 1998 and 3M said quarterly profit jumped 16 percent from a year ago, beating analysts' estimates.

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets closed mixed with Australia, Hong Kong, China and India falling and the rest of the region gaining. European equities rose on good company results as investors digested results from energy giant BP, Barclays bank and telecom equipment giant Ericsson, alongside positive British data. US markets rose after U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke gave no signs that the central bank was about to tighten monetary policy. Gold rose to an all-time high over $1,530 an ounce with silver at over $48 an ounce and oil also went up after the Federal Reserve vowed to keep U.S. interest rates low for an extended period, which sent the dollar tumbling.

On Thursday, Asian stocks rose after the U.S. central bank signalled it was in no rush to scale back support for the economy, keeping intact demand for riskier assets. European stockmarkets rose as investors welcomed the US Federal Reserve's commitment to keep interest rates low, and digested upbeat German unemployment data and company results. US equities rose modestly as the economy grew from January through March at an annualized rate of 1.8%, which is greater than the 1.7% increase that had been broadly expected although initial claims for the week ended April 23 totaled 429,000, which is greater than the 390,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Gold hit a new high of $1,538 an ounce before retreating with silver temporarily hitting a new all time high at over $49 an ounce.

On Friday, Asian stockmarkets fell as a slowdown in growth in the U.S. and mixed corporate earnings dampened stock market sentiment. European markets rose supported by positive company earnings. US indices rose on strong quarterly results from Caterpillar and Merck. Gold hit a new high again of over $1,560 an ounce.

Last week's major event was confirmation by the US Federal Reserve Bank that low interest rates are here to stay for a prolonged period. This has led investors to come out of cash and bonds and to push global stockmarkets and commodities higher due to inflation expectations.


The Federal Reserve Bank is sticking to its policy, and, as a result, we have to expect the continued devaluation of the dollar and the appreciation of commodities to remain intact. In fact, both gold and silver hit new highs last week.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Weekly Market Summary

By Raymond Chatlani


On Monday, Asian stockmarkets mostly rose following last week's good corporate results though China fell on inflation fears. European markets were closed. US markets faltered on discouraging corporate earnings forecasts. Gold and silver retreated after hitting new 2011 highs of $1508.70 and $47.15 an ounce respectively.

On Tuesday, Asian stocks and commodities pulled back from recent three-year highs in a bout of profit-taking before the Federal Reserve meeting this week where investors are seeking clues on when it plans to begin existing its ultra-easy monetary policy. European markets rose buoyed by strong results from Swiss banking giant UBS after profits for the first quarter came in ahead of expectations, helped by big inflows from wealthy customers. US stockmarkets rose on strong results from Ford and 3M as Ford reported its best first quarter earnings since 1998 and 3M said quarterly profit jumped 16 percent from a year ago, beating analysts' estimates.

On Wednesday, Asian stockmarkets closed mixed with Australia, Hong Kong, China and India falling and the rest of the region gaining. European equities rose on good company results as investors digested results from energy giant BP, Barclays bank and telecom equipment giant Ericsson, alongside positive British data. US markets rose after U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke gave no signs that the central bank was about to tighten monetary policy. Gold rose to an all-time high over $1,530 an ounce with silver at over $48 an ounce and oil also went up after the Federal Reserve vowed to keep U.S. interest rates low for an extended period, which sent the dollar tumbling.

On Thursday, Asian stocks rose after the U.S. central bank signalled it was in no rush to scale back support for the economy, keeping intact demand for riskier assets. European stockmarkets rose as investors welcomed the US Federal Reserve's commitment to keep interest rates low, and digested upbeat German unemployment data and company results. US equities rose modestly as the economy grew from January through March at an annualized rate of 1.8%, which is greater than the 1.7% increase that had been broadly expected although initial claims for the week ended April 23 totaled 429,000, which is greater than the 390,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Gold hit a new high of $1,538 an ounce before retreating with silver temporarily hitting a new all time high at over $49 an ounce.

On Friday, Asian stockmarkets fell as a slowdown in growth in the U.S. and mixed corporate earnings dampened stock market sentiment. European markets rose supported by positive company earnings. US indices rose on strong quarterly results from Caterpillar and Merck. Gold hit a new high again of over $1,560 an ounce.

Last week's major event was confirmation by the US Federal Reserve Bank that low interest rates are here to stay for a prolonged period. This has led investors to come out of cash and bonds and to push global stockmarkets and commodities higher due to inflation expectations.


The Federal Reserve Bank is sticking to its policy, and, as a result, we have to expect the continued devaluation of the dollar and the appreciation of commodities to remain intact. In fact, both gold and silver hit new highs last week.

Kind regards,

Raymond Chatlani

Investment Analyst

Hollingsworth International Financial Services Ltd

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